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	<title>New China Trader &#187; Ethanol</title>
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		<title>Two Ways to Profit in Spite of the Ethanol Snafu</title>
		<link>http://www.newchinatrader.com/archives/two-ways-to-profit-in-spite-of-the-ethanol-snafu/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 21:18:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Keith Fitz-Gerald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Keith Fitz-Gerald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethanol]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/08/two-ways-to-profit-in-spite-of-the-ethanol-snafu/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Keith Fitz-Gerald
  Investment Director
  Money Morning/The Money Map Report 
Many car buffs look to  Europe or Japan to see what the future holds, particularly when it comes to the  latest in alternative fuels.
The reason is simple: Gasoline costs more than $7 a gallon in both  those places. 
Of course, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By Keith Fitz-Gerald<br />
  Investment Director</strong><br />
  <strong>Money Morning/The Money Map Report</strong> </p>
<p>Many <a href="http://www.barrett-jackson.com/">car buffs</a> look to  Europe or Japan to see what the future holds, particularly when it comes to the  latest in alternative fuels.</p>
<p>The reason is simple: Gasoline costs more than $7 a gallon in both  those places. </p>
<p>Of course, in Japan &#8211; where I spend part of each year at our home in  Kyoto &#8211; I always enjoy the added bonus of three to five hardworking  service-station employees who swarm my car like they&#8217;re part of an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_One">F1 pit crew</a>, but that&#8217;s  merely a nicety that helps me feel better about the money I&#8217;m literally pouring  into my gasoline tank.</p>
<p>In Europe, I don&#8217;t get the pit crew, but I do get diesel. And thanks to  tax breaks in many of the countries there, diesel can be cheaper than gasoline.  No wonder, then, that more than 50% of the vehicles sold in the European market  are diesel powered.</p>
<p>Could we see a similar shift here in the United States market? </p>
<p>Perhaps. But there will first have to be some mighty big changes. And,  ironically, they&#8217;re many of the same changes that have to take place to clear  the way for such other alternative-fuel technologies as ethanol or hydrogen to  be fully commercialized. In the face of a trillion-dollar &quot;pork fest&quot; &#8211;  courtesy of the U.S. government &#8211; this really chafes my hide as both a  taxpayer, and as a consumer.</p>
<h3>Diesel and the Democratic Socialist Republic of Oregon</h3>
<p>For instance, only 45% of the nation&#8217;s service stations have diesel  fuel available for sale, and most of them &#8211; not surprisingly &#8211; are concentrated  along our freeways and highways, leaving suburbanite commuters and  behind-the-wheel city dwellers in a lurch. This means that I can own any diesel  vehicle I want, but am effectively limited as to where I can drive it.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s the same with ethanol.</p>
<p>Then there&#8217;s the cost. Right now, diesel is selling for only 20 cents  less than a gallon of gasoline. In years past, diesel was actually a great deal  cheaper than gasoline. Now, however, diesel is likely to get far more expensive  as demand for this close cousin to gasoline escalates even more.</p>
<p>Part of that heightened demand will come from newer diesel vehicles.  But, ironically, much of the demand increase will come from government  legislation related to ethanol production that requires output to increase from  4.7 billion gallons a year in 2007 to 7.5 billion gallons a year by 2012.  Here&#8217;s why: The bulk of the machinery used for ethanol production &#8211; as well as  the machinery used to harvest the corn used to make ethanol &#8211; is  diesel-powered.</p>
<p>Talk about a paradox.</p>
<p>Still, with the fuel consumption of European vehicles averaging 36  miles per gallon, versus only 22 miles per gallon here in the U.S. market, this  might be a moot point, since many of the world&#8217;s top &quot;clean diesel&quot; cars &#8211; such  as the 74 mpg Volkswagen AG Polo &#8211; aren&#8217;t even available here. Nor will they be  anytime, soon.</p>
<p>And that&#8217;s a literal &quot;crying shame,&quot; considering that many of them can  be much more environmentally friendly than the current crop of &quot;hybrids&quot; that  are all the rage among U.S. consumers.</p>
<p>But where it really gets frustrating for me &#8211; especially as I stand at  the gas pumps here in what I like to call the &quot;Democratic Socialist Republic of  Oregon,&quot; where my family and I live when we&#8217;re not in Kyoto &#8211; is that,  according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, if just 33% of U.S.  drivers switched to diesel vehicles, this country could cut oil imports by more  than 10%. What&#8217;s more, consumption would plummet by a staggering 1.5 million  barrels of crude per day.</p>
<p>That should make you sit up and take notice.</p>
<h3>How to Play the Alternative Fuel Trend</h3>
<p>One interesting long-term play that the <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong> staff has uncovered of late is agri-biotech giant Monsanto Co. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mon&#038;hl=en&#038;meta=hl%3Den">MON</a>),  which just last week released a quarterly sales-and-profit report that eclipsed  anything Wall Street had anticipated [<strong>To read <em>Money Morning</em>'s recent  analysis of Monsanto's business prospects and financial position, <u><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/07/monsanto-reaps-huge-rewards-from-its-blossoming-seed-business/">please  click here</a></u>. The report is free of charge</strong>].</p>
<p>Once largely a moribund chemical  company, Monsanto in recent years has moved heavily into the  agricultural-biotech field with its genetically engineered seeds and its  &quot;Roundup&quot; branded herbicide. Monsanto is already seeing a benefit from the  growing demand for food and other agricultural commodities as Third World  economies continue to emerge. And investors can expect that to continue.</p>
<p>But Monsanto is also benefiting  from the move to alternative fuels, such as ethanol. And if you think about  that, it makes perfect sense. Genetically engineered seeds improve crop yields.  And since ethanol is produced using either corn or sugar, soaring worldwide  energy demand will pressure producers of alternative fuels to be as efficient  as possible.&nbsp; That need for boosted crop  yields will further stoke demand for Monsanto&#8217;s seed products, as well as its  herbicide.</p>
<p>If funds are more you style,  consider some of the better-quality exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on  &quot;clean&quot; energy technologies &#8211; which include alternative fuels. One of  the top names is PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=pbw">PBW</a>).</p>
<p>These are some of the better  profit opportunities that exist now. Let&#8217;s hope our leaders wise up; if they  do, additional profit opportunities will emerge.</p>
<p><strong><u>News and Related Story Links:</u></strong></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money       Morning: </strong><br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/11/16/ethanols-a-farce-and-were-our-own-worst-enemy-when-it-comes-to-energy-alternatives/">Ethanol&#8217;s  a Farce and We&#8217;re Our Own Worst Enemy When It Comes To Energy Alternatives</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Wikipedia</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_One">Formula 1</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Web       site</strong>: <a href="http://www.barrett-jackson.com/"><br />
  Barrett-Jackson Auto Auctions</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money       Morning Investment Research Report</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/03/outlook-2008-alternative-energy-companies-will-power-green-profits-in-the-new-year/">Outlook  2008: Alternative  Energy Companies Will Power &quot;Green&quot; Profits in the New Year</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money       Morning Investment Report</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/07/monsanto-reaps-huge-rewards-from-its-blossoming-seed-business/">Monsanto  Reaps Huge Rewards From Its Blossoming Seed Business</a> </li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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