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	<title>New China Trader &#187; oil speculation</title>
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		<title>Investors Will Benefit From New Plan to Have the United States and China Cooperate in Curbing Oil Speculation</title>
		<link>http://www.newchinatrader.com/archives/investors-will-benefit-from-new-plan-to-have-the-united-states-and-china-cooperate-in-curbing-oil-speculation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.newchinatrader.com/archives/investors-will-benefit-from-new-plan-to-have-the-united-states-and-china-cooperate-in-curbing-oil-speculation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jan 2008 00:25:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Keith Fitz-Gerald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Fitz-Gerald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil speculation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/10/investors-will-benefit-from-new-plan-to-have-the-united-states-and-china-cooperate-in-curbing-oil-speculation/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Keith  Fitz-Gerald
  Investment  Director
  Money  Morning/The Money Map Report
Here&#8217;s a  headline investors probably never expected to see: The United States and China have  agreed to cooperate on the management of the two countries&#8217; strategic oil  reserves.
We don&#8217;t know  whether to find this story &#8211; first [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By Keith  Fitz-Gerald</strong><br />
  <strong>Investment  Director</strong><br />
  <strong>Money  Morning/The Money Map Report</strong></p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a  headline investors probably never expected to see: The United States and China <a href="http://en.chinagate.com.cn/economics/2007-12/14/content_9385589.htm">have  agreed to cooperate</a> on the management of the two countries&#8217; strategic oil  reserves.</p>
<p>We don&#8217;t know  whether to find this story &#8211; first reported by China&#8217;s state-run Xinhua News  Service &#8211; amusing, or downright terrifying.</p>
<p>So for now we  will think logically about the possible reasons why such an unlikely alliance  would be formed, and ponder what we should do about it.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s talk about  the why first.</p>
<p>Ostensibly, this  agreement is about curbing oil speculation in the international markets. By  including China, the consortium of international members who report their  oil-reserve plans through the <a href="http://www.iea.org/">International  Energy Agency</a> in Paris, not only get a look at China&#8217;s current inventory,  but also at that country&#8217;s potential future energy needs.</p>
<p>Considering it&#8217;s  the United States that&#8217;s shepherding China through the admissions process, we  suspect this is what&#8217;s really driving the agreement. </p>
<p>China&#8217;s growth  is unprecedented. But as a Communist nation, its workings are all too often  closed off to the rest of the world. Having international disclosure of China&#8217;s  oil reserves and future stockpiling plans will theoretically provide advanced  notice to other nations of higher oil prices in the event one or more nations  makes a run on the markets. </p>
<p>Knowing how  secretive Chinese traders can be &#8211; and the potential competitive advantages  they are giving up in the interest of international cooperation &#8211; we&#8217;re more  than a bit stunned over the prospects of a China that would be willing to  disclose this information.</p>
<p>As for how we  might use this agreement to create bigger profits in the years ahead, that&#8217;s a  crucial point to consider.</p>
<p>Our sources  suggest that China is slated to spend between $300 billion and $500 billion in  the next five years on energy conservation and environmental protection  equipment. And that&#8217;s in <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/24/investors-will-clean-up-from-beijing%e2%80%99s-toxic-mess-for-years-to-come/">addition  to the $1 trillion or more</a> that nation already has apportioned to energy  production and other petroleum-related matters. Therefore, any storage and  demand figures can conceivably be utilized to develop better investment  intelligence on where it plans to spend its money and in what order.</p>
<p>Indeed, now that  the OPEC crowd has finally conceded that <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/03/oil-hits-100-a-barrel-on-global-political-tension-and-supply-concerns/">the  global supply outlook for petroleum is nowhere near as serene</a> as they&#8217;ve  tried to have us believe for years, this kind of market intelligence becomes  all the more valuable to investors.</p>
<p>And given that  $300 billion to $500 billion represents nearly 30% of the total global market  for such conservation and protection equipment, this could be a powerful  indicator when it comes to future profits. With regard to energy production,  that&#8217;s more of a wildcard. But since oil remains priced in U.S. dollars, the  potential demand figures carry a highly correlated relationship to the strength  &#8211; or weakness &#8211; of the greenback.</p>
<p>Moreover, given  that much of this equipment &#8211; as well as China&#8217;s reserves &#8211; come from the  United States, China&#8217;s participation in the IEA consortium could serve as  important political antacid when it comes to reducing China&#8217;s trade surplus,  which has been a major point of controversy in Washington.</p>
<p><strong><u>News and  Related Story Links:</u></strong></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Chinagate.com: </strong><strong> </strong><br />
  <a href="http://en.chinagate.com.cn/economics/2007-12/14/content_9385589.htm">China,  U.S. to Cooperate on Use of Strategic Oil Reserves</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money Morning Commentary</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/24/investors-will-clean-up-from-beijing%e2%80%99s-toxic-mess-for-years-to-come/">Investors  Will Clean Up From Beijing&#8217;s Toxic Mess for Years to Come</a></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><strong>Money Morning News</strong>: <br />
  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/03/oil-hits-100-a-barrel-on-global-political-tension-and-supply-concerns/">Oil  Hits $100 a Barrel on Global Political Tension and Supply Concerns</a></li>
</ul>
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