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	<title>New China Trader &#187; Stimulus</title>
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		<title>Four Ways to Profit Even if the Bush Stimulus Plan is a Bust</title>
		<link>http://www.newchinatrader.com/archives/four-ways-to-profit-even-if-the-bush-stimulus-plan-is-a-bust/</link>
		<comments>http://www.newchinatrader.com/archives/four-ways-to-profit-even-if-the-bush-stimulus-plan-is-a-bust/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jan 2008 00:37:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Keith Fitz-Gerald</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Keith Fitz-Gerald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stimulus]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/22/four-ways-to-profit-even-if-the-bush-stimulus-plan-is-a-bust/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Keith Fitz-Gerald
  Investment  Director
    Money  Morning/The Money Map Report 
Show me an  effective Bush Administration economic stimulus package and I&#8217;ll show you a  finger-friendly Cuisinart.
Who does President George W. Bush think he&#8217;s kidding?
The $600 bucks he wants to hand out isn&#8217;t going to do squat &#8211; [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>By Keith Fitz-Gerald</strong><br />
  <b>Investment  Director</b><br />
    <b>Money  Morning/The Money Map Report</b> </p>
<p>Show me an  effective Bush Administration economic stimulus package and I&#8217;ll show you a  finger-friendly Cuisinart.</p>
<p>Who does President George W. Bush think he&#8217;s kidding?</p>
<p>The $600 bucks he wants to hand out isn&#8217;t going to do squat &#8211; and the  securities markets know it, which is why they&#8217;re selling off so steeply as of  late.</p>
<p>As much as I&#8217;d like to put the blame on Bush for the financial-markets  mess we&#8217;re dealing with now, it really wouldn&#8217;t be fair. Instead, everything  points to former Federal Reserve Chairman Al &quot;Irrational Exuberance&quot; Greenspan  as being the key cause of this toxic financial soup. This puts his former sidekick  and eventual successor &#8211; Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke &#8211; in the unenviable  position of having to bring the country in from the rain.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, he can&#8217;t do it.</p>
<h3>Government Inflation Stats Need Inflating</h3>
<p>Despite the party line about so-called &quot;core inflation&quot; holding the  line, Washington is badly out of touch with reality, and has been for a long  time now. It&#8217;s bad enough that the core inflation figures factor out &quot;volatile  food and energy prices,&quot; as the reports always state. That&#8217;s almost a ludicrous  thought: After all, the higher costs of food, gasoline, heating oil, air  conditioning and electricity hit us squarely in the wallet, too. But, as we&#8217;ve  been saying for years, even the core inflation numbers the government has been  relying upon have understated the true effects of inflation.</p>
<p>Thanks to Greenspan &#8211; and years of cheap capital &#8211; the home equity  market has been pillaged like a band of Vikings ran though it. The average  family carries $8,500 to $12,000 in consumer debt, scattered across six to  eight credit cards. Breakfast costs 60% more now than it did at this same time  a year ago. Oil has nearly doubled, and medical costs are skyrocketing.</p>
<p>Then there are the soaring default rates and bankruptcies, which are  escalating at rates we haven&#8217;t seen in years.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, Team Bernanke may be out of aces, which is why investors  must take matters into their own hands.</p>
<p>Without subjecting you to a lecture on the finer points of economic  theory, let me just say that taking the stimulus package the Bush  Administration is currently contemplating and bringing it to bear on the  current economic conditions is tantamount to bringing a knife to a gunfight.  It&#8217;s outdated and is the wrong tool for the battle at hand. </p>
<p>Here&#8217;s why: The Fed&#8217;s current tactics presume that <u>healthy</u> financial institutions will be able to counter inadequate consumer demand. This  is why the central bank has been working so hard to keep such &quot;big boys&quot; as  Citigroup Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=c&#038;hl=en&#038;meta=hl%3Den">C</a>)  and Merrill Lynch &amp; Co. Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mer">MER</a>) afloat.</p>
<p>However, using the words &quot;healthy&quot; and &quot;financial institutions&quot; in the  same sentence is perhaps the ultimate oxymoron, because it was the financial  institutions that got us into this mess, and they&#8217;re anything but healthy right  now.</p>
<p>At best, some of these players are turnaround candidates.</p>
<p>But, healthy? No way&#8230;</p>
<p>Personally, I&#8217;m livid that my tax dollars are being deployed to bail  out some of these financial institutions, when the markets clearly want to let  them die a painful death. Nor am I happy that big companies are using tax  loopholes and other financial maneuvers to dodge hundreds of millions of  dollars in state and federal income taxes. That&#8217;s money that you and I will  have to make up.</p>
<p>But what really burns my jets is that Wall Street paid out some of its  biggest-ever bonuses for last year. Now the newly flush members of the Armani  Army are shopping for homes in Aspen and the Hamptons, while many working- and  middle-class homeowners are struggling to avoid defaulting on their subprime  mortgages. The rest of us are trying to figure out what we&#8217;re going to do with  the $600 we&#8217;re each going to get from the Bush anti-recession stimulus plan.</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t get me wrong: The money&#8217;s nice; but it won&#8217;t help much.</p>
<p>Clearly, the money rules have changed. And getting rich is the best  revenge even as our esteemed leaders muddle around in a politically charged  stupor.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s how&#8230;</p>
<h3>Profit Plays to Make Now</h3>
<p><b><u>First, build a base</u></b>. Invest as much as 50% of your assets in a  category of investments we refer to as &quot;Base Builders.&quot; That&#8217;s one of three  asset classes &#8211; the other two being &quot;Global Growth&quot; and &quot;Rocket Riders&quot; &#8211; whose  names are self-explanatory. Invest as much as 40% in Global Growth and up to  10% in the more-speculative Rocket Rider investments.</p>
<p>These are holdings that not only provide a significant potential  upside, but also have automatic safety brakes built in. The Vanguard Wellington  Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=VWElx&#038;hl=en&#038;meta=hl%3Den">VWELX</a>)  is my favorite example. Since 1929, it&#8217;s captured most of the market&#8217;s upside,  including a fair number of years with returns of 20% or better. But the fund  has avoided replicating the worst of the downturns because of its 60-40 split  between stocks and bonds.</p>
<p><b><u>Second, dial up dividends</u></b>. Studies show that dividend-paying stocks are less  volatile, and the consistent reinvestments along the way can build up a thick  layer of financial armor that will actually boost your returns when the markets  eventually do recover &#8211; as they will.</p>
<p>Certainly, dividend-paying stocks such as General Electric Co. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=GE">GE</a>), Johnson &amp; Johnson (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=jnj&#038;hl=en">JNJ</a>) and Bristol  Myers Squibb Co. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bmy&#038;hl=en">BMY</a>)  are great, but a dividend-harvest strategy like that utilized by the Alpine  Dynamic Dividend Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Advdx&#038;hl=en&#038;meta=hl%3Den">ADVDX</a>)  can dramatically accelerate the process in down markets.</p>
<p><b><u>Third, run the reverse</u></b>. Include at least a small percentage of &quot;inverse&quot;  mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in your portfolio mix. In case  you&#8217;re not familiar with inverse investments, these are funds that appreciate  in value as the broader market drops. Not only can they help stabilize your  portfolio during the increasingly volatile stretch like the one we&#8217;re  attempting to navigate now, they can also really put a smile on your face when  the going gets rough. One of our favorites is the Rydex Inverse S&amp;P 500  Strategy Investment Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ryurx">RYURX</a>).</p>
<p><b><u>And fourth, and last, grab some &quot;Global Titans.&quot;</u></b> Make sure  that you are focusing the more-conventional portions of your portfolio on the  so-called Global Titan stocks that we&#8217;ve discussed with you so many times  before. Companies such as Yum! Brands Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=yum&#038;hl=en">YUM</a>), PepsiCo Inc.  (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=pep&#038;hl=en&#038;meta=hl%3Den">PEP</a>)  and The Boeing Co. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ba&#038;hl=en&#038;meta=hl%3Den">BA</a>)  derive big portions of their revenue from overseas. Not only can these  securities overcome the weak U.S. economy, they can capitalize on the faster  growth of key overseas markets as China.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a formula for double-barreled profits that will clearly have a bigger  benefit than a capital-infusion plan that nets each of us $600.</p>
<p><b><u>News and Related Story Links:</u></b></p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><b>San Jose       Mercury News</b>:<br />
  <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_8030355?nclick_check=1">Stock Markets  Plunge Worldwide</a>.</li>
</ul>
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